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- Most Australians surveyed predict property prices will fall over the next 3–6 months
- Of these, the vast majority anticipate an average fall of 20% or less.
- Almost 9 in 10 Australians surveyed have no intention of buying or selling property in the short term.
In April 2020, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, Budget Direct asked 998 Australian adults a series of questions relating to the property market and housing.
Here’s what they told us:
How much do you think property prices will rise/fall over the next 3–6 months?
More than half of Australians surveyed predict property prices will fall over the next 3–6 months.
About a quarter anticipate prices will remain stable, while roughly a quarter think they’ll rise.
Of those predicting a fall in property prices over the next 3–6 months, the vast majority anticipate a drop of 20% or less.
Of those predicting a rise in property prices, most think the rise will be 15% or less.
The state-level responses were fairly consistent with the national averages.
The exceptions were the ACT, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, however these results are less reliable due to relatively small number of people surveyed in these jurisdictions.
The 35–44 age group was the one in which the highest proportion of people predicted a fall in property prices of up to 20%.
The 45–54 age group was the one in which the highest proportion of people predicted a fall in property prices of more than 20%.
And the 18–24 age group was the one in which the highest proportions of people predicted property price rises of up to 15% and more than 15%.
The most notable difference between men and women surveyed was the percentage who predict a fall in property prices of up to 20%.
Just over a third of men and nearly half of women anticipate a drop of this magnitude.
Do you intend to buy or sell property in the next 3–6 months?
The vast majority of those surveyed have no intention of buying or selling property in the next 3–6 months.
As for the remainder, there appear to be more buyers than sellers in the market.
If you were planning to buy or sell property before COVID-19, have you since changed your mind?
Of those respondents who were planning to buy or sell property before COVID-19, nearly 60% of them intend to go through with their plans.
Of those who have delayed the purchase/sale, roughly half intend to wait up to 12 months, the other half more than 12 months.
Can you afford your mortgage or rent?
About a quarter are unsure — perhaps reflecting their uncertainty over COVID’s longer-term impacts on the economy.
The number who say they cannot afford housing (7.5%) is a shade higher than the official unemployment rate (which rose in April from 5.2% to 6.2%).
Have you applied for government financial assistance in the past month?
While most respondents have not recently applied for government assistance, the proportion who have is sizeable.